Strengthen the management of inflation expectations will become the focus of the next phase of policy
    Yesterday to National Bureau of Statistics data showed September CPI rose 3.6%, the highest in nearly 23 months to new high; chain rose 0.6%, up three-down five-eight categories of goods, including food rose 8%, or home First, in addition, housing prices rose 4.3%, these two factors have led to a new high in September CPI.

    CPI food and housing price movements around

    Data show that in September of food, living on the pull-year CPI was 0.57% and 2.61%, tobacco and liquor, clothing, household equipment and maintenance services, health care and personal products, transport and communications, entertainment and educational products and Services were 0.06% pull, -0.14%, 0.02%, 0.34%, -0.07%, 0.17%.

    In fact, starting from the third quarter of 2009, China's CPI statistical indicators of the food prices began to rebound, and showed overall gains, as an important reason for higher CPI. In addition, housing prices are higher CPI in September to promote the cause. Currently, housing prices in the CPI in the weight of about 15%, housing prices are mainly from the water fuel, building and decoration materials, rent and other price structure.

    This year China will actively promote the water, electricity, natural gas price reform of resource products, promote energy conservation and structural adjustment, some places, the introduction of price adjustment measures introduced or brewing. Increase prices of resource products will lead to water and electricity fuel prices, increasing pressure on consumer prices, but its impact depends on the size of price rises for these products and their weights in the CPI.

    State Statistical Bureau spokesman Sheng admitted to transport, housing price index expenditure weights in the future will continue to increase. Industry experts point out, the state regulation of the real estate market will gradually markedly, housing prices are expected to stable, but food prices and housing prices will lead the trend of this year's CPI.

    CPI has not yet peaked

    Industry experts said that steady economic growth throughout the year is a foregone conclusion, no "double dip", the four-quarter GDP growth will be at a higher level continued to slow. Although the CPI hit a new high, but have not yet peaked, to strengthen the management of inflation expectations will become the focus of the next phase of the policy.

    Industrial Bank funds operations center political commissar, chief economist, said Lu: "CPI has not yet peaked, 10-month increase over 4% could not be ruled out. November started to decline, but the inflation target of 3% during the year should be able to reach." Shenyin million, chief macroeconomic analyst at China Securities Research Retrospect also believes that the October CPI will continue to rise, increase, or to 3.8%. He stressed that the current concern is to be global commodity prices on domestic prices of industrial products.

    Tuesday the central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, industry experts point out that if economic growth is better to maintain the existing situation and inflation, do not rule out the end of this year may still raise interest rates again early next year, after the seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session, macro-policy shift to structural adjustment as the main tone, monetary policy next year will shift to neutral.

    Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China, silver DS that the next two years, CPI could rise about 3%, if not increase one-year interest rates, negative interest rates will be the long-term macroeconomic problems. If next year's CPI target of 3%, it means that decision-makers should accept the next year to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to practical requirements, or CPI, and real estate goals and interest rate policy would be a contradiction between the control objectives.

    Retrospect that the interest rate is the most effective way to control overheating type of inflation, but inflation is structural inflation, interest rates and not directly to inflation. However, market interest rates to stabilize inflation expectations.

    List of major economic data

    An increase in the value of the data published

    CPI103.6 (9 months) 3.60%

    PPI104.3 (9 months) 4.30%

    GDP268660 million (third quarter) 10.60%

    PMI53.8 (9 months) 3.80%

    Fixed investment 5.123 trillion (9 months) 24.00%

    Rates 103.52 (9 months) 3.52%

    Money supply 69,640,000,000,000 (9 months) 18.96%

    Exports 144.99 billion U.S. dollars (9 months) 25.10%

    Outside the reserve $ 2,648,300,000,000 (9 months) 16.53%

    FDI83.84 billion (9 months) 6.14%

    Financial 628719000000 (9 months) 12.10%

    New credit 595.5 billion yuan (9 months) 15.25%